Key Takeaways:
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The Bitcoin long-term holder cohort saw a $26 billion value increase as BTC price surged to $94,900.
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Short-term holders sold at a loss in early April.
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Bitcoin’s 30% correction lines up with historical cycles, and BTC could find support in the $88,750 and $91,000 zone.
Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders (LTHs) significantly increased their collective wealth in April as BTC price surged from $74,450 to $94,900. According to data from CryptoQuant, the long-term holders (LTHs) realized market cap increased from $345 billion to $371 billion between April 1 and April 23, marking a $26 billion gain.
This sharp increase in LTH realized cap signals that long-term holders are rewarded for resilience through recent drawdowns. Bitcoin experienced a 30%+ correction between January and early April, a pattern consistent with historical market cycles. Data from past cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021 shows that such drawdowns are routine after Bitcoin touches new all-time highs, often shaking out weaker hands before resuming its upward trend.
Other factors also underlined LTH’s conviction during the correction period. Bitcoin’s growing decoupling from traditional markets, particularly as US equities faced pressure from the trade wars, improved its investment appeal. While stocks tumbled, gold prices surged to new highs at $3,500, reflecting investor demand for non-correlated assets—a trend likely boosted LTHs confidence in Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.
On the other hand, Cointelegraph reported that short-term holders (STHs) returned to profit this week. Still, many sold at a loss during the April drawdown, reflecting their tendency to rotate positions under market stress. This behavior echoes a recurring trend in 2024, where STHs frequently sold to LTHs during corrections.
Bitcoin supply in profit market bands signals a bullish outlook, after the total supply in profit increased above the “threshold of optimism”. Currently, 16.7 million BTC in various Bitcoin addresses are in profit.
Historical data from 2016, 2020, and 2024 show that when Bitcoin consistently holds above this key bullish zone, it frequently sparks significant bull runs, driving prices to new highs within months.
Related: Bitcoin exchange outflows mimic 2023 as whales buy retail ‘panic’
Bitcoin may build a new range between $95K-$90K
Following its rise to $94,900, analysts expect Bitcoin to potentially undergo a cooldown period. MNCapital founder, Michael van de Poppe, mentioned that after a massive breakout, it is “fairly normal to have a slight correction”.
Likewise, anonymous crypto trader Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin has tested its weekly resistance for now, and BTC may drop as low as $91,000.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may consolidate between $94,900 and $88,750 in the coming days. Recent price action suggested a prolonged cooldown following its breakout rally. On the 4-hour chart, the key support zone lies between $90,500 and $88,750, representing a fair value gap.
A breach below this range could invalidate the lower time frame (LTF) bullish structure, potentially driving prices toward the next support area between $84,000 and $86,300, where Bitcoin previously consolidated for a week before its strong positive breakout.
Related: Bitcoin’s next big resistance is $95K— What will trigger the breakout?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
